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151.1 Chapter preview151.2.1 Setting the Stage for the Assessment151.2.2 Key Concepts in Climate Science
151.2.3 Multiple Lines of Evidence for Climate Change151.3.1 Global and Regional Surface Temperatures151.3.2 Greenhouse Gas Concentrations
151.3.3 Extreme Events151.3.4.1 Sea Level151.3.4.2 Ocean Acidification
151.3.4.3 Ice151.3.4 Climate Change Indicators151.3 Indicators of Climate Change
151.4.1 Uncertainty in Environmental Science151.4.2 Characterizing Uncertainty151.4.3 Treatment of Uncertainty in IPCC
151.4.4 Uncertainty Treatment in This Assessment151.5.1 Capabilities of Observations151.5.2 Capabilities in Global Climate Modelling
151.5 Advances in Measurement and Modelling Capabilities151.6 Overview and Road Map to the Rest of the Report1514.1.1 Monsoons and Tropical Convergence Zones
1514.1.2 Modes of Climate Variability1514.1.3 Tropical and Extratropical Cyclones1514.1.4 Summary of Climate Phenomena and their Impact on Regional Climate
1514.1 Introduction1514.8.12 Southeast Asia1514.8.13 Australia and New Zealand
1514.8.14 Pacific Islands Region1514.8.15 Antarctica1514.8.1 Overview
1514.8.2 Arctic1514.8.3 North America1514.8.4 Central America and Caribbean
1514 Executive summary1514 References151 Executive summary
151 Frequently asked questions151 References152.1 Introduction
152.2.1.1.1 Carbon dioxide152.2.1.1.2 Methane152.2.1.1.3 Nitrous oxide
152.2.1.1.4 Hydrofluorocarbons, Perfluorocarbons, Sulphur Hexafluoride and Nitrogen Trifluoride152.2.1.2 Ozone-Depleting Substances (Chlorofluorocarbons, Chlorinated Solvents, and Hydrochlorofluorocarbons152.2.1 Well-Mixed Greenhouse Gases
152.2.2.1 Stratospheric Water Vapour152.2.2.2 Stratospheric Ozone152.2.2.3 Tropospheric Ozone
152.2.2.4 Carbon Monoxide, Non-Methane Volatile Organic Compounds and Nitrogen Dioxide152.2.2 Near-Term Climate Forcers152.2.3.1 Aerosol Optical Depth from Remote Sensing
152.2.3.2 In Situ Surface Aerosol Measurements152.2.3 Aerosols152.3.1 Global Mean Radiation Budget
152.3.2 Changes in Top of the Atmosphere Radiation Budget152.3.3.1 Surface Solar Radiation152.3.3.2 Surface Thermal and Net Radiation
152.3.3.3 Implications from Observed Changes in Related Climate Elements152.3 Changes in Radiation Budgets152.4.1.1 Large-Scale Records and Their Uncertainties
152.4.1.2 Diurnal Temperature Range152.4.1.3 Land Use Change and Urban Heat Island Effects152.4.2.1 Advances in Assembling Data Sets and in Understanding Data Errors
152.4.2.2 Interpolated SST Products and Trends152.4.2 Sea Surface Temperature and Marine Air Temperature152.4.3 Global Combined Land and Sea Surface Temperature
152.4.4.1 Advances in Multi-Decadal Observational Records152.4.4.2 Intercomparisons of Various Long-Term Radiosonde and MSU Products152.4.4.3 Additional Evidence from Other Technologies and Approaches
152.4.4.4 Synthesis of Free Atmosphere Temperature Estimates152.4.4 Upper Air Temperature152.4 Changes in Temperature
152.5.1.1 Global Land Areas152.5.1.2 Spatial Variability of Observed Trends152.5.1.3 Changes in Snowfall
152.5.2 Streamflow and Runoff152.5.3 Evapotranspiration Including Pan Evaporation152.5.4 Surface Humidity
152.5.5.1 Radiosonde152.5.5.2 Global Positioning System152.5.5.3 Satellite
152.5.5.4 Reanalyses152.5.5 Tropospheric Humidity152.5.6.1 Surface Observations
152.5.6.2 Satellite Observations152.5 Changes in Hydrological Cycle152.6.1 Temperature Extremes
152.6.2.1 Precipitation Extremes152.6.2.2 Floods152.6.2.3 Droughts
152.6.2.4 Severe Local Weather Events152.6.2 Extremes of the Hydrological Cycle152.6.3 Tropical Storms
152.6.4 Extratropical Storms152.6 Changes in Extreme Events152.7.1 Sea Level Pressure
152.7.2 Surface Wind Speed152.7.3 Upper-Air Winds152.7.4 Tropospheric Geopotential Height and Tropopause
152.7.5 Tropical Circulation152.7.6.1 Mid-latitude and Subtropical Jets and Storm Track Position152.7.6.2 Weather Types and Blocking
152.7.7 Stratospheric Circulation152.7.8 Changes in Indices of Climate Variability152.7 Changes in Atmospheric Circulation and Patterns of Variability
152 Executive summary152 References153.1 Introduction
153.2.1 Effects of Sampling on Ocean Heat Content Estimates153.2.2 Upper Ocean Temperature153.2.3 Upper Ocean Heat Content
153.2.4 Deep Ocean Temperature and Heat Content153.2.5 Conclusions153.3.1 Introduction
153.3.2.1 Sea Surface Salinity153.3.2.2 Upper Ocean Subsurface Salinity153.3.2 Global to Basin-Scale Trends
153.3.3.1 Pacific and Indian Oceans153.3.3.2 Atlantic Ocean153.3.3.3 Arctic Ocean
153.3.3.4 Southern Ocean153.3.3 Regional Changes in Upper Ocean Salinity153.3.4 Evidence for Change of the Hydrological Cycle from Salinity Changes
153.3.5 Conclusions153.4.1 Introduction153.4.2.1 Turbulent Heat Fluxes and Evaporation
153.4.2.2 Surface Fluxes of Shortwave and Longwave Radiation153.4.2.3 Net Heat Flux and Ocean Heat Storages Constraints153.4.3 Ocean Precipitation and Freshwater Flux
153.4.4 Wind Stress153.4.5.1 Changes in Surface Waves from Voluntary Observing Ship and Wave Model Hindcasts Forced by Reanalyses153.4.5.2 Changes in Surface Waves from Buoy Data
153.4.5.3 Changes in Surface Waves from Satellite Data153.4.5 Changes in Surface Waves153.4.6 Conclusions
153.5.1 Introduction153.5.3 Deep and Bottom Waters153.5.4 Conclusions
153.6.1 Global Observations of Ocean Circulation Variability153.6.2 Wind-Driven Circulation Variability in the Pacific Ocean153.6.3 The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation
153.6.4 The Antarctic Meridional Overturning Circulation153.6.5.1 Indonesian Throughflow153.6.5.2 The Antarctic Circumpolar Current
153.6.5.3 North Atlantic/Nordic Seas Exchange153.6.6 Conclusions153.7.1 Introduction and Overview of Sea Level Measurements
153.7.2 Trends in Global Mean Sea Level and Components153.7.3 Regional Distribution of Sea Level Change153.7.4 Assessment of Evidence for Accelerations in Sea Level Rise
153.7.5 Changes in Extreme Sea Level153.7.6 Conclusions153.8.1.1 Ocean Uptake of Carbon
153.8.1.2 Changes in the Oceanic Inventory of Anthropogenic Carbon Dioxide153.8.2 Anthropogenic Ocean Acidification153.8.3 Oxygen
153.8.4 Nutrients153.8.5 Conclusions153.8 Ocean Biogeochemical Changes, Including Anthropogenic Ocean Acidification
153.9 Synthesis153 Executive Summary153 References
154 Executive Summary154 References3.5.2.1 North Pacific Intermediate Water
3.5.2.2 Antarctic Intermediate Water3.5.3.1 Upper North Atlantic Deep Water3.5.3.2 Lower North Atlantic Deep Water
3.5.3.3 Antarctic Bottom WaterAiguo DaiAlbert Klein Tank
Alejandro OrsiAlex S. GardnerAndrey Kostianoy
Ben MarzeionBen SanterBo Qiu
Box 151.1 Description of Future ScenariosBox 152.1 Uncertainty in Observational RecordsBox 152.2 Quantifying Changes in the Mean: Trend Models and Estimation
Box 152.3: Global Atmospheric ReanalysesBox 152.4: Extremes IndicesBox 152.5: Patterns and Indices of Climate Variability
Box 153.1: Change in Global Energy InventoryBox 153.2: Ocean AcidificationBrian Soden
Catia M. DominguesCecilie MauritzenDavid B. Stephenson
David FrameDavid G. VaughanDeliang Chen
Dennis HartmanDonald WuebblesEdmo Campos
Eric LeulietteEric RignotFAQ 152.1 How Do We Know the World Has Warmed?
FAQ 152.2 Have There Been Any Changes in Climate Extremes?FAQ 153.1 Is the Ocean Warming?FAQ 153.2 Is There Evidence for Changes in the Earth’s Water Cycle?
FAQ 153.3 How Does Anthropogenic Ocean Acidification Relate to Climate Change?Fredolin TangangGeir Moholdt
Georg KaserGregory C. JohnsonHans von Storch
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