IPCC Wiki Indonesian Throughflow

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The transport of water from the Pacific to the Indian Ocean via the Indonesian archipelago is the only low-latitude exchange between oceans, and is significant because it is a fluctuating sink/source for very warm tropical water in the two oceans. The Indonesian Throughflow (ITF) transport has been estimated from hydrographic and XBT transects between Australia and Indonesia, and as a synthesis of these together with satellite altimetry, wind stress, and other data (Wunsch, 2010), and from moorings in the principal Indonesian passages. The most comprehensive observations were obtained in 2004–2006 in three passages by the INSTANT mooring array (Sprintall et al., 2009), and show a westward transport of 15.0 (±4) Sv. For the main passage, Makassar Strait, Susanto et al. (2012) find 13.3 (±3.6) Sv in the period 2004–2009, with small year-to-year differences. On a longer time scale, the Wunsch (2010) estimate for 1992–2007 was 11.5 Sv (±2.4) westward, and thus consistent with INSTANT. Wainwright et al. (2008) analyzed data between Australia and Indonesia beginning in the early 1950s, and found a change in the slope of the thermocline for data before and after 1976, indicating a decrease in geostrophic transport by 23%, consistent with a weakening of the tradewinds (e.g., Vecchi et al. (2006), who described a downward trend in the Walker cir- culation since the late 19th century). Other transport estimates based on the IX1 transect show correlation with ENSO variability (Potemra and Schneider, 2007) and no significant trend for the period since 1984 having continuous sampling along IX1 (Sprintall et al., 2002). Overall, the limited evidence provides low confidence that a trend in ITF transport has been observed.

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