IPCC Wiki Severe Local Weather Events

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Another extreme aspect of the hydrological cycle is severe local weather phenomena such as hail or thunder storms. These are not well observed in many parts of the world because the density of surface meteorological observing stations is too coarse to measure all such events. Moreover, homogeneity of existing reporting is questionable (Verbout et al., 2006; Doswell et al., 2009). Alternatively, measures of severe thunderstorms or hailstorms can be derived by assessing the environmental conditions that are favourable for their formation but this method is very uncertain (Seneviratne et al., 2012). SREX highlighted studies such as those of Brooks and Dotzek (2008), who found significant variability but no clear trend in the past 50 years in severe thunderstorms in a region east of the Rocky Mountains in the USA, Cao (2008), who found an increasing frequency of severe hail events in Ontario, Canada during the period 1979–2002 and Kunz et al. (2009), who found that hail days significantly increased during the period 1974–2003 in southwest Germany. Hailpad studies from Italy (Eccel et al., 2012) and France (Berthet et al., 2011) suggest slight increases in larger hail sizes and a correlation between the fraction of precipitation falling as hail with average summer temperature while in Argentina between 1960 and 2008 the annual number of hail events was found to be increasing in some regions and decreasing in others (Mezher et al., 2012). In China between 1961 and 2005, the number of hail days has been found to generally decrease, with the highest occurrence between 1960 and 1980 but with a sharp drop since the mid-1980s (CMA, 2007; Xie et al., 2008). However, there is little consistency in hail size changes in different regions of China since 1980 (Xie et al., 2010). Remote sensing offers a potential alterative to surface-based meteorological networks for detecting changes in small scale severe weather phenomenon such as proxy measurements of lightning from satellites (Zipser et al., 2006) but there remains little convincing evidence that changes in severe thunderstorms or hail have occurred since the middle of the 20th century (Brooks, 2012).

In summary, there is low confidence in observed trends in small-scale severe weather phenomena such as hail and thunderstorms because of historical data inhomogeneities and inadequacies in monitoring systems.

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